How the counters work

1. What "spending" means

Federal: general government cash payments, the headline figure in the Department of Finance Monthly Financial Statements (cash paid for operating activities, purchases of non-financial assets and principal payments on leases). States and territories mostly publish general government total expenses, an accrual measure, because few publish monthly cash figures. Cash and accrual are different: accrual counts costs when they're incurred (including things like depreciation), cash counts money when it leaves the bank. So federal and state totals can't be compared directly, and adding them up would double-count grants the Commonwealth pays to the states. Each counter says which measure it uses.

2. Anchor to the latest actual

Where the counter should be today = the latest published year-to-date actual + the projected spending from the end of that actual's period to today. Each new release moves the anchor.

Example: if spending to the end of September was published as $198.75b, the target on 15 November is $198.75b plus the projected spending for 1 October to 15 November.

3. Spread the full-year estimate by the usual pattern

The ticking rate comes from the government's latest full-year estimate (Budget, then the mid-year update when it's out). Federal spending isn't even across the year, so the federal estimate is spread by the average share of the year spent in each month, taken from recent complete years (2021-22 to 2025-26; the COVID years are left out). Finance only publishes its official monthly profile for a month when it releases that month's actual, so it can't be used to tick ahead. For governments with no monthly figures the estimate is spread evenly by day. The pattern used is in the data file (monthly_shares).

4. Smooth it: 30-day EMA

Month-by-month shares would make the rate jump on the 1st of each month. The daily rate is smoothed with a 30-day exponential moving average, run forwards and then backwards over the year so it doesn't lag, then rescaled so the year still adds up to exactly the full-year estimate.

5. Close gaps over about 30 days

When a new actual or estimate lands, the counter is usually a bit off the new target. It doesn't jump. The gap is paid off at one-thirtieth per day on top of the normal rate until it's gone. A newer release replaces any unfinished correction. If the limits below hold it back, it keeps going past 30 days rather than dropping the rest.

6. Slew limit

The daily rate can change by at most 5% of the year's average daily rate per day. This stops the counter lurching when a release lands. The gap correction eases off early so the slowdown lands on target instead of overshooting.

7. Never goes backwards

Money spent stays spent. The rate is floored at zero: if the counter is ahead of a new actual, it slows down or pauses until the actual-anchored path catches up. It never counts down.

8. Resets on 1 July

Spending counters are financial year to date. Each one resets to zero at local midnight on 1 July, in that government's own time zone (Sydney for federal, Perth for WA, and so on).

9. June and the Final Budget Outcome

There is no federal June monthly statement. The full-year figure is published in the Final Budget Outcome (usually late September), and states publish their own end-of-year results. Until then the year just finished shows the latest estimate and where the counter ended. Once the final outcome is out, it replaces both, and past dates in that year are drawn as straight lines between the published year-to-date figures ending at the final total.

10. The uncertainty band (90%)

Because the ticking number is a projection, each spending counter shows a range where the real figure probably sits, nine times out of ten.

• Federal (monthly actuals): ±1.645 × σ × (full-year estimate ÷ 12) × √(months since the last actual's period ended). σ is the typical one-month-ahead miss of this method, measured by testing it on 2021-22 to 2025-26 with each year left out in turn (4.44% at the time of writing). The band widens the longer it's been since the last release and snaps back when a new one lands.
• States and territories (few or no in-year actuals): ±1.645 × σ × the counter, where σ is the root-mean-square gap between the original Budget and the final outcome in recent years (South Australia: 6.31%, from 2022-23 to 2024-25).
• Any gap the counter hasn't finished closing (rule 5) is added on top.

The band is symmetric, but history isn't: South Australia, for example, spent more than its original Budget in each of the last three years, so the real risk there is mostly upward. The exact settings for each government are in the table below, read live from the data.

11. "Where it's going"

Finance publishes federal expenses by function (17 areas such as social security and welfare, health, defence) each month, year to date. The bars take each area's share of the latest actual and apply it to today's projected federal counter. That's a projection, and an approximate one: the shares are from accrual expenses while the counter is cash payments. The real, published year-to-date figure for each area is shown under its bar.

12. GST collected

The GST figure is the published year-to-date actual from the Monthly Financial Statements, not a projection. It doesn't tick. "Averaged every second" is that actual total divided by the number of seconds from 1 July to the end of the month it covers.

13. Debt is a straight line between published figures

Debt is published at points in time (monthly for federal net debt; at Budget, mid-year and year-end for most states). The counter draws a straight line from one published figure to the next: actual to actual, then from the latest actual to the government's own Budget estimate for the next 30 June. After the last figure it stays flat. Unlike spending, debt can go down, and the counter will tick down if the next figure is lower. Net debt can also be negative (more financial assets than debt). The measure for each government is shown on its card.

13a. Net debt vs a year's spending

Each card shows today's net debt divided by that government's latest full-year spending estimate for this financial year (Budget, mid-year review or outcome). Because it's a ratio, big and small governments can be ranked side by side: 100% means the debt equals one full year of spending. It is our calculation from the published figures, not an official measure. Federal spending is cash payments and most states report accrual expenses, so treat small gaps between governments with care. Economists more often compare debt with the size of the economy (gross state product); we use spending because it's the figure this site already tracks.

14. Future years are the governments' own numbers

For future financial years up to 2029-30 we don't make our own forecasts. We use each government's own Budget (or latest mid-year update) estimates for spending and debt, spread through the year by the same rules. They're the government's promises and expectations, not ours, and they change at every Budget and mid-year update.

15. Per Australian / per resident

"Per Australian" divides a figure by Australia's estimated resident population of 27,921,150 at 31 March 2026, from the ABS National, state and territory population, March 2026 (released 17 September 2026). State and territory figures use each one's population from the same release (published in thousands). The population is held fixed until the next release; it doesn't tick. It's an average, not a bill anyone receives.

16. Per household

"Per household" divides the same total by the number of households: 10,787,602 in Australia at 30 June 2026, from the ABS Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2021 to 2046 (released 28 June 2024; Series II, the middle series; Data Explorer table "Projected households"). State and territory cards use each one's projected households from the same table. The ABS counts a household as one or more people, at least one aged 15 or over, who usually live in the same private dwelling; people in nursing homes, hostels, prisons and other non-private dwellings aren't in any household. Per household = total ÷ households. It isn't what any one household pays in tax, and households don't pay equal shares.

17. How facts are chosen

The Facts page picks each fact by size: the largest value on its measure (the biggest rise, payment, share or ratio), using the same test for every government and every party. Where a fact compares governments or parties, all of them are shown with their figures, not only the one at the top, so if a Labor government comes out highest on one measure and a Coalition government on another, both are shown the same way. Facts are worded plainly with no judgement words, every number is read at load time from the same data files the other pages use, and each fact gives its period, the page with the detail and the original source. A measure is left out when the official source says its figures can't be compared (for example the 2021-22 and 2023-24 Audits of Employment).

18. The mortgage calculator

The RBA page works out a principal and interest repayment with the standard amortisation formula: repayment = P × i ÷ (1 − (1 + i)⁻ⁿ), where P is the balance, i is the yearly rate ÷ 12 and n is the months left. It compares your starting rate with that rate plus the 1.25 points of 2026 rises (cash rate 3.60% to 4.85%, five rises), and the rate before the latest 0.25 point with the rate after it. The yearly figure is the monthly difference × 12. The starting rate defaults to 5.5%, the average rate on existing owner-occupier variable loans in January 2026, the last month before the first rise (RBA Table F6, published to one decimal place), and you can change it. It assumes the bank passes on every rise in full and that the balance and term stay the same. Fixed-rate loans don't change until the fixed term ends. Cuts in 2025 aren't counted, and interest-only loans, offset accounts and fees aren't modelled. The arithmetic is ours, not a bank's. It's an illustration, not advice about anyone's loan.

Example: $600,000 over 25 years is $3,684.52 a month at 5.5% and $4,145.47 at 6.75%, so $460.94 extra a month, or $5,531 a year. From 6.5% to 6.75%, the latest rise alone is $94.23 a month.